Kevin Cirilli: Understanding the Broader Impact of the U.S.-China Technology Rivalry

The U.S.-China tech competition, a battle between the world’s two largest economies for leadership in advanced technologies, has had a tremendous impact on the global economy, security, and international politics. Both, the United States and China, are competing for primacy in the development of semiconductors, AI, 5G networks, and other technologies to strengthen their geopolitical positions. Kevin Cirilli is the founder of mtf.tv’s meet the future, which focuses on the intersection of all things future technology and global security. He is a visiting media fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub and former chief Washington correspondent for Bloomberg TV and Radio. He gave us an interview offering insights into the competition between the world’s most powerful states and explained its broader implications for international relations.

How would you characterize the U.S.-China technology competition? What are the main factors driving it, and how has it evolved to the present state?

Let me be blunt: the U.S. is winning – including with artificial intelligence, quantum, and hypersonics. My fellowship with the Atlantic Council is rooted in the U.S.-China tech competition and its wide-ranging impacts. It’s clear this rivalry is one of the defining forces in today’s geopolitics.

And it’s all rooted in America’s best export: our innovation. No one comes close, including the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). So while the CCP might be a close second place on A.I. – they’re still playing catch-up.

American innovation on the digital frontier isn’t just good for America – it’s good for the world. By the way, none of this stuff is new – we’re talking a lot about semiconductor chips these days and how they’re the DNA to our modern life. America literally invented the semiconductor chip back in 1958 with Jack Kilby and Robert Noyce. No offense to Thomas Edison’s lightbulb, but I think the chip is just as important – if not more important – to our daily lives.

Contrast that with the CCP – what’ve they contributed in tech? ByteDance’s TikTok? No comparison.

What are the key strengths and vulnerabilities of the United States and China in the ongoing technological competition?
America’s strength is its innovation that can flourish in a culture that values freedom, diversity, transparency, and equality. These democratic values are inherent to the American identity. It’s why I founded mtf.tv’s meet the future several years ago – I wanted to further explore these issues and values with a mission to embrace freedom to meet the future’s challenges and opporutnities.

I know what you’re thinking: ‘Don’t be so naïve — have you turned on the news lately?’ You don’t have to tell me about the news. I used to work as a journalist at a place called Bloomberg. And I’d be traveling the world listening to people babble on and on about how divided we are as Americans. Candidly, I think the CCP and Russia overplay their hand on exploiting this political polarization stuff. America thrives under pressure — we relish in being underestimated. Just look at the Boston Tea Party.

But here’s something else – and I covered it at Bloomberg and saw it behind-the-scenes with my Atlantic Council fellowship – U.S. national security on the digital frontier is a nonpartisan issue. Period.

Now, let’s take a look at the CCP. They might’ve stolen some short-term wins by syncing their government and industrial sectors. Here’s the catch: when everything’s centralized like that, it kills creativity. No separation between the government and private sector? That’s a recipe for long-term failure. In the U.S., true innovation grows because of our emphasis on freedom, diversity, and transparency. That’s what sets us apart not just from the CCP but all authoritarian governments.

What key policies have the United States and China implemented in response to the ongoing tech competition? Are these policies effective?
One of the biggest slam dunks that President Biden scored was with the bipartisan CHIP Act. I mean, that thing is going to go down in the history books with the Apollo Program. I’m telling you, these chips are huge. Chips are the new oil. The CHIPS Act embraces innovation and freedom to meet the future’s challenges and opportunities head-on.

Meanwhile, the CCP doubled down on intimidation tactics. Xi’s moves in the Taiwan Strait—military drills and aggressive posturing—are aimed at asserting control, but they’re falling flat. The world sees through the CCP’s efforts to destabilize the Indo-Pacific. While China tries to bully its way to influence, the U.S. is putting in the long-term hard work, embracing freedom and innovation by investing in high-tech manufacturing and strengthening supply chains to be less reliant on any one country, including China.

What impact has the U.S.-China tech competition had on global supply chains, particularly in sectors like semiconductors, AI, and 5G?
The CCP’s pressure on Taiwan — home to TSMC — complicates things for global supply chains. TSMC controls more than half of the global semiconductor market, affecting the supply of advanced chips worldwide.

In terms of 5G — the U.S. is already looking ahead to 6G. The CCP has tried with mixed results to deploy Huawei to countries in Africa, but the Biden-Harris administration were able to thwart the CCP’s momentum.

How are other countries and regions like the European Union, Russia, and Japan responding to the U.S.-China tech competition?
Most countries see the CCP’s disregard for intellectual property and human rights as real threats to global stability and security.

Russia, though? Different story. That said – Putin’s egregious war against Ukraine exposed some major Moscow weaknesses. NATO’s strength and unity have shocked both Russia and China. Again, they overplayed their hand on perceived divisions. The Biden-Harris team caught both Russia and China off guard by bolstering NATO – not just on the ground but on the digital frontier, too. But don’t sleep on the growing Russia-China bromance — Putin and Xi’s alliance is something we should all keep an eye on.

Are there any sectors or innovations where China is currently ahead of the U.S.?
No. Some might point to ByteDance’s TikTok as a win for China, but the long-term business model? Sketchy is putting it nicely. There’s a growing bipartisan push in Washington against ByteDance’s TikTok, with concerns over national security, data privacy, and mental health for kids.

Again, you have to wonder: is the CCP overplaying its hand on perceived divisions within America? What happens when more Americans wake up to the risks of the CCP playing quite literally in the palm of their hands – their smartphone? Will Americans ever trust the CCP with their daily technology? I just don’t see that happening. I grew up in a place called Delco outside of Philadelphia – we would never think to have a pop culture platform be controlled by an authoritarian government.

And here’s the kicker—ByteDance’s TikTok runs wild in the U.S., while platforms like YouTube are straight-up banned in China. That’s the CCP controlling the narrative while America plays fair. But trust me, D.C. policymakers are eager to address this issue.

What do you think is the biggest issue in the U.S.-China tech competition that people are not paying enough attention to?
Outer space. Space manufacturing, rare earth minerals, and 5G and 6G satellites could have massive impacts on supply chains and the global tech competition. It’s easy to overlook these developments because they’re not always visible, but their significance shouldn’t be underestimated.

Is there a potential path to the de-escalation in the tech competition, and what could the long-term economic implications be for both the United States and China if it continues to escalate?
No one wants conflict. And there’s a difference between conflict and competition. America has always been a force for freedom, peace, and prosperity – both on planet Earth and on the digital frontier. If Xi follows international rules, respects Taiwan’s status, and stops stealing U.S. intellectual property – in addition to other actions – then yes, tensions could start to ease.


Kevin N. Cirilli is the founder of mtf.tv’s meet the future, a platform focused on the intersection of national security, technology, and business. He previously served as the Chief Washington Correspondent for Bloomberg TV and Bloomberg Radio, where he covered key political and economic events. Kevin is also a visiting media fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, and he has advised organizations, non-profits, business CEOs, and policymakers. Through his work, he is committed to fostering leadership and innovation in the next generation of emerging leaders by embracing freedom to meet the future’s challenges and opportunities.

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